I live just a mile outside of Washington, DC, on the northern border of the city. You can easily walk into the District on a walking trail that goes by my house.
Not a lot of people know it, but one of the largest urban parks in the country is in DC. At over twice the size of New York’s Central Park, Rock Creek Park runs through the center of DC.
It’s very easy to ride a bike from my house straight to the Lincoln Memorial, all on a paved bike path.
Having said that, I still live near a large city, and with that comes noise. There is a railroad track nearby and the beltway is located less than a half mile from my house. And, we happen to be in the flight path for Reagan National Airport.
We’re far enough away from National Airport that you more see than hear most of the planes.
But, we also happen to be in the flight path for JBA, Joint Base Andrews. Or, as we’ll always call it, Andrews Air Force Base.
Whenever you see a President of the U.S. boarding Air Force One for a trip to wherever, he’s boarding at Andrews.
While I’m sure the amount of air traffic that goes in and out of Andrews is pretty regular, we only get a small amount of that traffic over our house. This means we see (and hear) maybe a large cargo plane once a month, and every once and a while Air Force One, or the Vice President’s plane.
Pattern Change
Last night, as my daughter was going to bed, she asked us why the “planes” were louder the past few days. My wife said she was probably just hearing trains in the distance.
But, since I had been grilling on our back patio, I could confirm that yes, the planes were louder. Which really meant there were a few more of them headed to JBA than usual. I had heard the same thing.
Then, this morning, this text from my daughter:
The air show happens every year sometime in May, but usually closer to Memorial Day. So there was a logical explanation for the increased JBA traffic. Mystery solved.
So why am I super excited that my daughter picked up on a subtle change in the flight patterns around our house?
Because I know a secret that 99% of investors I’ve met don’t. People who can spot patterns, and then execute based on those patterns, can become very wealthy.
SPAC Warrant Pays Massive Return
I’ve talked a great deal about established SPAC trading patterns. In this recent post I go over the role management plays at each phase of a SPAC’s journey.
And, I’ve gone over SPAC warrants pattern trading in more detail in other posts as well.
So let’s talk about a new and emerging pattern developing in the SPAC world.
Warrant Observer members who have been following the SPACfolio (a portfolio of SPAC warrants provided to members), will be very familiar with Thunder Bridge Acquisition (TBRG, TBRGW).
When Thunder Bridge announced the acquisition of Repay, the SPAC warrants jumped higher. The SPACfolio had purchased the warrants at $.35. They subsequently moved to our target price of $.90, for a 157% gain.
The SPACfolio is designed for one purpose. To capture gains made from the announcement by a SPAC that it has identified an acquisition target.
As you know from my article on SPAC phases, it generally doesn’t matter if this is a “good” acquisition or not. The warrants will very likely move higher on any announcement of an acquisition.
But, Thunder Bridge wasn’t quite done with warrant investors.
After the close yesterday management provided an early Christmas gift to warrant investors it had already bestowed those 157% gains on. The company proposed an amendment to the warrant agreement, even before the acquisition has closed.
Let’s put it this way. If you went to bed last night thinking “I should probably buy a beer for the Thunder Bridge management guys if I ever run into them in a bar.” Then you woke up this morning and shouted, “I’m going to send those guys a frigging case of champagne!!!”
At the open, at a price of $1.80, your $.35 investment threw off a 414% return. A measly $2,000 turned into $8,280 in 4 months.
Now, would you rather figure out how to get involved in SPAC warrants, or worry your stock positions are going to tank because President Trump called another world leader a derogatory school yard name in a tweet? Just sayin, this stuff isn’t really all that hard. You can join our marauding band of Warranteers right here.
Emerging SPAC Warrant Pattern
But listen, that’s not even the best part.
I’m seeing a pattern (remember, those things that make you rich?) begin to emerge in the SPAC area. SPACs that identify good acquisitions are finding ways to eliminate their warrants to avoid share dilution. (Read that again and let it sink in.)
Result: Warrant holders are getting paid off big time!
Remember Waitr (WTRH). It was the first warrant (WTRHW) featured in the Warrant Observer newsletter. A few days later the company decided to get rid of its warrants by essentially buying out warrant holders. Result: Big payday for warrant holders.
I mentioned One Madison (OMAD, OMAD.WS) a few weeks ago in a post. They are buying back and retiring the SPAC warrants, even before closing on their acquisition of Ranpak. Think there’s a chance they sweeten the offer for warrant holders either before or after the vote to ratify the acquisition?
And now Thunder Bridge with a HUGE payday for warrant holders. And they won’t be the last.
I don’t know about you, but I see the beginning of a pattern that could pay warrant investors in the right SPAC warrants massive amounts of money.
You only need to get rich once.